Remembering 9/11

You’d have to be in a coma or living in the rainforest of Papua New Guinea not to know it’s the 10^th anniversary of 9/11. There are a number of momentous events that have characterised modern history and changed our world forever - Waterloo, the Great War, the Great Depression, Pearl Harbor, the Holocaust, Stalingrad, Hiroshima and then the Twin Towers. These events define the age. Almost all involved brutality and slaughter – man’s inhumanity to man. Few will forget that fateful day. Most can remember where they were and what they were doing. I know I can. I watched in silent horror. This changes everything, I thought with typically restrained British understatement. The Cold War may be over but a new ideological conflict was about to start in deadly earnest.

Not since January 1815 when 1,500 British troops attacked a thinly defended American battery on Georgia's coast* has any foreigner attacked the American mainland. To be sure there had been terrorist atrocities before but the scale of the aerial strikes on the World Trade Centre and the Pentagon were of an entirely different order using two of the most potent symbols of western technological supremacy - the passenger jet and the skyscraper. It’s made America jittery and defensive. Moslems across the West are vilified as the new reds under the bed and the loose talk of jihad and crusades makes our fragile and fractious world an infinitely more dangerous place. Be afraid.

*The British then proceeded to sack the nearby town of St. Mary's and burn its fort before departing just weeks later. The hostilities marked the last invasion and occupation of the U.S. mainland by foreign troops. The fighting was all the more remarkable because the War of 1812 (when the British tried to burn down the White House) had ended a month earlier with the Treaty of Ghent. By the time the invaders pulled out, even Andrew Jackson's victory over the British at New Orleans - often considered the final battle of the war - was history. It had taken a month for word of peace to make its way across the Atlantic to both British and American forces.

Source: The Archaeological Institute of America

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Letter to America

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London Cleans Up After Riots

The nasty riots that raged across London and other cities seem to have thankfully abated. There’s been a lot of easy talk about Broken Britain and knee-jerk reactions from here today, gone tomorrow politicians with their silly sound-bites who play to the gallery. What’s broken can be fixed but it takes everyone to do their bit. The indomitable spirit of the overwhelming number of Brits of all hues will overcome those who trash their own.

This is an incredible amateur video of a brave woman who challenged the rioters. If you don't like swearing then I suggest you don't watch this clip.

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Riots in London

Huddled Masses

Brassed Off

The Turkish top brass have resigned en-masse. Is this a sign that the days of military coups are over or an indication of trouble to come? In a mature democracy elected leaders appoint the military leaders not the other way round. The New York Times has published a piece on this unprecedented event. The article itself is well balanced as would be expected from a well respected newspaper. However, the comments from some of the readers show a staggering level of ignorance.Also from across the pond, An American think tank, the University of New York Centre for Global Affairs, has just published a report of its predictions for Turkey’s political situation by 2020. They see three possible scenarios emerging:

Scenario One - Illiberal Islamism
The Justice and Development Party (AKP) consolidates its power by capitalizing on the weakness of the secularist opposition, responding to the demands of the conservative urban lower-middle class, and building an alliance with the Islamist Felicity Party (SP). By 2020, Sunni Islam is the most powerful force in domestic and foreign policy, to the exclusion of minority views.

Scenario Two - Illiberal Secularism
The AKP faces socio-economic challenges, increasing resistance to its Islamist tendencies, and a deteriorating security situation. This creates an opportunity for the Republican People’s Party (CHP) to come to power, with the support of the military and the National Movement Party (MHP). The new coalition espouses a strong, secure, and secular Turkey. In pursuing these goals, however, it tends toward authoritarianism.

Scenario Three - Political Pluralism
The AKP loses support when it fails to mitigate Turkey’s socio-economic problems. Dissatisfaction prompts civil society and political parties to begin coalescing around new approaches to the economy, corruption, regional development, and governance. Politics becomes more competitive, forcing parties to compromise in order to build governing coalitions, and the polarization between secularist and Islamist forces gives way to pragmatism.

Their analysis, it seems, is that Turkey may slide towards religious authoritarianism or secular repression or become more democratically progressive. Talk about covering all the bases. I’m no political pundit but really, I could have come up with this myself on the back of a fag packet. To think people pay good money for this. I'm in the wrong game. Should we be worried? Don’t ask me.

The Turkish Election Result

The results of the Turkish jury are in and the outcome is as widely predicted. The incumbent AKP government won by a landslide with an overwhelming majority of parliamentary seats (though not votes) that British political parties can only fantasise about. However, the AK Party failed to achieve the two thirds majority in Parliament required to change the Turkish Constitution without the need to hold a referendum. Crucially, they are also about four seats short of the number required to be able to devise amendments without parliamentary consultation. Expect some lively debates. What is also interesting is the polarised distribution of seats across the country with the main opposition CH Party dominating the Aegean coastal provinces and European Turkey outside Istanbul. Apart from the Kurdish regions, the rest of the country is bathed in yellow (the AKP colour). It begs the question is Turkey the crossroads of east and west or the fault line?

It’s a clear victory for the AKP and a mandate for change. The Government is now in a commanding position to do whatever it wants. The failure to win the required threshold of seats will only delay their ambitions. Liam is currently investigating how to build and maintain a still for the distillation of potcheen and scrumpy, and looking up the cost of renting in Spain. Only kidding, obviously.

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Be Careful What You Wish For

Election fever has gripped the nation ahead of the national vote on June 12th. Democracy is a serious and sometimes deadly business in Turkey judging by the recent bomb attack in Istanbul. Thankfully, no-one was killed this time.

The view from our balcony provides a visual treat of meandering misplaced tourists, lunatic drivers in a rush and colourful electioneering travelling vans blazoned with party political slogans crowned with giant loudspeakers. We’re serenaded by an ear-piercing mix of Turkopop and Soviet-era patriotic marching tunes. It’s all very jolly.

The current government incumbents, the AK Party is flying high in the polls and victory seems assured. It’s the margin of success that interests me. A strong opposition is essential for a healthy democracy anywhere but the Opposition here appears fractured and ineffective. The AK Party may secure a sufficient majority in Parliament to revise the Turkish Constitution without recourse to a referendum.  If Turkey continues to slip towards religious conservatism, we may reconsider our place in the sun.

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